ANALISIS DAN PROYEKSI TINGKAT INFLASI TAHUNAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL ARIMA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46306/volatility.v1i2.171Keywords:
Inflation, ARIMA, Forecasting, DeflationAbstract
This study aims to analyze and predict Indonesia's inflation rate for the 2024–2033 period using the ARIMA(2,1,1) model. The data used is the annual data on Indonesia's inflation rate from 1990 to 2023, obtained from the World Bank. The prediction results show a gradual downward trend in inflation, where inflation is expected to be positive until 2029, but then enter the deflationary zone from 2030 to 2033. This has implications for the need for more adaptive economic policies to avoid the risk of a decline in aggregate demand and a slowdown in economic growth due to prolonged deflation. This study has limitations because it only uses the ARIMA model without considering external factors such as monetary policy, exchange rates, and global commodity prices that can affect inflation. Therefore, further research is recommended to develop a more comprehensive prediction model by incorporating other macroeconomic variables as well as using approaches such as Vector Autoregression (VAR) or Machine Learning. With a more holistic approach, the prediction results can be more accurate and provide more effective policy recommendations in maintaining inflation stability and Indonesia's economic growth
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